![]() It can seem mundane too, but the simplicity of the daily ritual of brushing your teeth is also key to its success. Just like brushing your teeth, you might not notice the difference, but over time the benefits can be significant. This is the kind of regular foresight that takes place in Finland’s government, where different ministries and committees report to each other on their futures work.īut the potential should always be considered for a little to go a long way. Preventive work can include discussing a set of future scenarios from a previous exercise, reviewing early-warning indicators of future change, or stress-testing the current strategy against a set of megatrends from an outside source. There is also value to periodic check-ups, in the same way that you might see your dentist at regular intervals. A good example of this kind of intervention is the Montfleur Scenarios, created at the height of upheaval as apartheid was abolished, and designed to guide South Africa towards a better future. They will help you to build new scenarios, deepen understanding, reframe strategy, or develop early warning systems. And just like major surgery, you wouldn’t attempt to perform it on yourself! Bring in professionals and choose good ones. In these circumstances, major foresight can be valuable. For an organisation facing a profound disruption or crisis considering a significant change in direction or tasked with a momentous decision, it is important to reflect carefully-and devote sufficient resources to doing so. Sometimes they’re the best option, and sometimes they’re indispensable. Large-scale interventions are not necessarily bad. The best foresight is achievable foresight. What do we need: Major surgery, a periodic check-up, or a few minutes per day? ![]() At the end, we summarise a set of tips for people of all levels of experience to make a little foresight go a long way. In this blog post, we bring together our thinking on how to make strategic foresight both more manageable and more likely to succeed. Like the proverb says, “an ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure.” As with brushing your teeth, just a few minutes per day can be genuinely impactful. Indeed, if we can help organisations adopt a culture in which foresight is a lightweight but regular ritual, we can make a more long-lasting and sustainable shift. Just a few minutes per day can go a very long wayįor most people, most of the time, large-scale interventions are not what strategic foresight needs to look like. The issue to be researched might have changed, or the window of opportunity is simply gone. Plus, longer interventions carry a greater risk of becoming outdated before they’re even finished. Often, people just don’t have the time or experience necessary to participate in such an undertaking. The idea of an unfamiliar, large-scale intervention lasting many months is understandably daunting. It is often an unhelpful way of presenting strategic foresight, because it doesn’t recognise the perspective and realities of the organisation that needs it. We have seen policymakers get similarly nervous when told that they need to devote great time and resources to carry out a strategic foresight intervention. Surgeons want to do major surgery foresighters want to do major foresight For me, it would be an unfamiliar and uncomfortable experience that would cost me money.” For him, extracting teeth was a core part of his profession, and probably a relatively interesting task that would make him money. The joke worked because of the contrast in the experience for us. I would protest because my wisdom teeth have never caused me any problems. One of his running ‘jokes’ was that he couldn’t wait for my wisdom teeth to emerge so he could pull them out. “My dentist was a highly affable person, with a relaxed manner and great sense of humour. The inspiration for this blog comes from Josh’s childhood experience of finding trips to the dentist strangely enjoyable. But we make a mistake when we present strategic foresight as if it’s all about “major surgery.” We should focus more on the proportionate, timely, and regular foresight work that builds up to big benefits, just like the simple act of brushing teeth. It’s what we specialise in, and it can be highly interesting and rewarding to work with organisations who can benefit. ![]() ![]() For us, the “surgery” of strategic foresight interventions is a main part of our profession. Strategic foresight experts are sometimes a bit like dentists. Strategic foresight and innovation policy analysts Josh Polchar and David Jonason discuss what is really needed to make foresight adequate, proportionate, and regular.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |